Wed, Nov 3, 2010·United Center, Chicago
New Jersey Devils 5, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 16 | 310 | 524 |
| CHI | 05 | 115 | 212 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:31NJDJason ArnottAssists: Patrik Elias · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 4:14NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 16:02CHIBrian CampbellAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Brent Seabrook · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 3:42CHIFernando PisaniPPAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–2
- P3 16:09NJDBrad MillsAssists: Jamie Langenbrunner, Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 19:10NJDJamie LangenbrunnerENGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
- P3 19:26CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Jack Skille, Nick Boynton · Backhand, 0.26 xG4–3
- P3 19:52NJDAndy GreeneENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:48CHIViktor Stalberg: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:08NJDAdam Mair: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:08CHIJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:20CHIMarty Turco: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:59NJDHenrik Tallinder: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:43NJDAdam Mair: Interference2 min
- P3 2:06NJDHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:21NJDMatt Taormina: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:44CHIJack Skille: Kneeing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sharp won the faceoff against Arnott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Kovalchuk – Zajac14:08
xG 0.94–0.64 (60%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Clarkson – Pelley – Mills3:54
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Arnott – Elias – Zubrus10:50
xG 0.62–0.68 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Mair – Clarkson – Pelley5:00
xG 0.04–0.19 (18%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMagnan – Greene6:56
xG 0.47–0.15 (75%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Greene2:53
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Taormina4:41
xG 0.02–0.04 (35%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKopecky – Sharp – Skille4:09
xG 0.81–0.39 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Toews – Kane12:36
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Dowell – Skille – Stalberg3:32
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Bickell – Dowell – Stalberg2:37
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Hjalmarsson13:43
xG 1.03–0.39 (73%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Cullimore – Boynton6:38
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Campbell – Keith2:03
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).