Mon, Nov 8, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 19 | 113 | 08 | 01 | 231 |
| DET | 114 | 011 | 112 | 13 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:40DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Brian Rafalski, Mike Modano · Slap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 19:05PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 7:31PHXKeith YandleAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 7:24DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Brad Stuart, Pavel Datsyuk · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 1:23DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Ruslan Salei, Todd Bertuzzi · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:06DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:06PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:56PHXLee Stempniak: Interference2 min
- P2 9:32PHXLee Stempniak: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:41DETNiklas Kronwall: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:37PHXEd Jovanovski: Interference2 min
- P3 10:25DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBelanger – Stempniak – Wolski10:04
xG 0.64–0.23 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal12:06
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Prucha – Upshall – Turris8:25
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Korpikoski7:41
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLepisto – Yandle2:49
xG 0.10–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle14:47
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson11:34
xG 0.53–0.61 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestModano – Cleary – Abdelkader3:35
xG 0.43–0.16 (74%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Eaves – Abdelkader – Helm3:32
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Modano – Franzen – Abdelkader3:56
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Hudler4:18
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Kronwall3:30
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Stuart – Ericsson2:17
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Salei – Ericsson2:59
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).