Tue, Nov 9, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Atlanta Thrashers 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 111 | 014 | 112 | 237 |
| OTT | 210 | 213 | 16 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01ATLAndrew LaddPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Dustin Byfuglien · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 11:05OTTJason SpezzaAssists: David Hale, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 15:39OTTSergei GoncharPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 5:04OTTChris NeilGWGAssists: Chris Phillips, Chris Kelly · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 9:12OTTJesse WinchesterAssists: Nick Foligno, Ryan Shannon · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–4
- P3 1:23OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P3 5:12ATLAnthony StewartPPAssists: Evander Kane, Niclas Bergfors · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:52OTTErik Karlsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 6:08ATLBen Eager: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:36ATLRich Peverley: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:50OTTRyan Shannon: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:51ATLAndrew Ladd: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:34OTTChris Campoli: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 12:50OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:31OTTRyan Shannon: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:26OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:26ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Slater
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Peverley – Bergfors11:04
xG 1.18–0.08 (93%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane10:44
xG 0.72–0.54 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Modin – Boulton – Burmistrov8:52
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Eager – Slater9:34
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien14:04
xG 1.17–0.13 (90%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian15:07
xG 0.79–0.18 (82%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Bogosian2:10
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestShannon – Foligno – Winchester7:41
xG 0.66–0.06 (91%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly8:44
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Kovalev – Spezza – Regin12:40
xG 0.19–0.86 (18%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Michalek10:34
xG 0.42–1.11 (28%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Campoli10:24
xG 0.77–0.11 (88%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Karlsson2:07
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Campoli – Karlsson2:50
xG 0.01–0.03 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).