Wed, Nov 10, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 5, New Jersey Devils 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 317 | 110 | 07 | 2 | 542 |
| NJD | 19 | 313 | 07 | 03 | 1 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:12NJDJason ArnottAssists: Patrik Elias, Mattias Tedenby · Backhand, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 5:22BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Tim Connolly, Jordan Leopold · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 5:35BUFDerek RoyAssists: Thomas Vanek, Tyler Myers · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 7:58NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Alexander Vasyunov, Andy Greene · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 12:01NJDJason ArnottPPAssists: Andy Greene, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 13:50BUFTyler MyersAssists: Rob Niedermayer, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P2 18:01NJDJamie LangenbrunnerAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Travis Zajac · Deflected, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 8:54BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Tyler Myers, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 2. NJD Jason Arnott stopped
- 3. BUF Thomas Vanek scored
- 4. NJD Patrik Elias stopped
- 5. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 6. NJD Jamie Langenbrunner scored
- 7. BUF Derek Roy scored
- 8. NJD Ilya Kovalchuk stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:37NJDDainius Zubrus: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:44BUFTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:40NJDJason Arnott: Interference2 min
- P3 13:00BUFRob Niedermayer: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Vanek – Ennis13:12
xG 0.82–0.46 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick11:25
xG 0.07–0.11 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Hecht – Connolly – Pominville10:21
xG 0.60–0.75 (44%)attempts 14–7goals 1–3
- Gaustad – Ellis – Kaleta12:26
xG 0.16–0.37 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Montador18:27
xG 1.05–0.80 (57%)attempts 19–10goals 1–2
- Sekera – Myers15:15
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Morrisonn – Butler15:39
xG 0.01–0.84 (1%)attempts 2–16goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Elias – Tedenby11:48
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Zubrus – Clarkson – Vasyunov12:16
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Mair – Pelley – Gionta7:10
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Langenbrunner – Kovalchuk – Zajac11:54
xG 0.46–0.89 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Taormina7:00
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- White – Tallinder12:59
xG 0.78–0.72 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 2–2
- Tallinder – Magnan2:26
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).