Sat, Nov 13, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 113 | 112 | 236 |
| PHI | 218 | 319 | 05 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:14PHIMike RichardsAssists: Andreas Nodl, Sergei Bobrovsky · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:38PHIScott HartnellAssists: Ville Leino, Kimmo Timonen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 7:46PHIMike RichardsPPGWGAssists: Jeff Carter, Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 9:11PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Ville Leino, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.44 xG0–4
- P2 11:27PHIClaude GirouxUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–5
- P2 12:23FLACory StillmanAssists: Keaton Ellerby, Stephen Weiss · Deflected, 0.19 xG1–5
- P3 17:49FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Bryan McCabe · Snap, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:37FLABryan Allen: Interference2 min
- P2 2:22PHIChris Pronger: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:11FLADavid Booth: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:31FLABryan McCabe: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:13FLAMichael Frolik: Holding2 min
- P3 18:39PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Brière
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Weiss – Frolik6:27
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Reasoner – Higgins10:04
xG 0.77–0.60 (56%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
- Stillman – Reinprecht – Hordichuk4:46
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Reinprecht – Hordichuk – Matthias5:47
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Wideman13:59
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 21–12goals 0–2
- Weaver – Kulikov12:45
xG 0.84–0.77 (52%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
- McCabe – Ellerby15:27
xG 0.71–1.25 (36%)attempts 22–21goals 2–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestShelley – Betts – Carcillo8:05
xG 0.75–0.37 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino13:01
xG 1.16–0.79 (60%)attempts 23–23goals 1–0
- Zherdev – Richards – Nodl5:20
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Carter – Giroux – Powe11:32
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn12:38
xG 0.88–0.53 (62%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- O'Donnell – Meszaros14:31
xG 0.88–0.76 (54%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Pronger – Carle15:50
xG 0.61–0.67 (48%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).