Sat, Nov 13, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 3, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 114 | 212 | 331 |
| SJS | 217 | 113 | 15 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Jason Demers, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 10:24SJSRyane CloweAssists: Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 0:51CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Ian White, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 16:22SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Logan Couture, Ryane Clowe · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 9:14CGYJay BouwmeesterAssists: Matt Stajan, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 14:10SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Ryane Clowe, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 19:23CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:58CGYOlli Jokinen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:59CGYCory Sarich: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:43SJSDany Heatley: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:06SJSDan Boyle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:23CGYCraig Conroy: Interference2 min
- P2 7:08SJSDany Heatley: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:53CGYCory Sarich: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:53SJSJamal Mayers: Instigator2 min
- P2 11:53SJSJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:53SJSJamal Mayers: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:10CGYMatt Stajan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:59SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:20SJSLogan Couture: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:22SJSTorrey Mitchell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHagman – Moss – Backlund6:49
xG 0.39–0.25 (60%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan3:24
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Morrison – Jackman – Stajan3:56
xG 0.03–0.08 (29%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Conroy – Iginla – Tanguay4:23
xG 0.10–0.59 (15%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Giordano9:33
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- White – Giordano2:05
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sarich – Mikkelson7:35
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Pavelski – Couture9:32
xG 1.33–0.15 (90%)attempts 16–8goals 3–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley10:21
xG 0.95–0.72 (57%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Setoguchi – McCarthy6:24
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – McGinn4:51
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray8:21
xG 1.19–0.17 (88%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Boyle – Vlasic3:11
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Boyle – Huskins2:13
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).