Wed, Nov 17, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 119 | 113 | 28 | 440 |
| NYI | 011 | 115 | 110 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:59TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brett Clark, Ryan Malone · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 12:49TBLBrett ClarkPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 17:26NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Zenon Konopka · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 18:31TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Steve Downie, Mike Lundin · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 18:52NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Zenon Konopka, Matt Moulson · Backhand, 0.41 xG3–2
- P3 19:44TBLNate ThompsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:45TBLMattias Ritola: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:29NYIDylan Reese: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:13NYIJosh Bailey: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:13NYIJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:13TBLMattias Ritola: Charging5 min
- P2 11:41NYITrent Hunter: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:46TBLAdam Hall: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:56NYIJosh Bailey: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:51TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:44NYIZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Purcell – Stamkos6:56
xG 0.22–0.04 (85%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Moore – Downie6:20
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Hall – Bergenheim – Thompson6:20
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Ritola – Harju – Tyrell3:15
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Lundin12:54
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Clark – Hedman10:33
xG 0.43–0.66 (39%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Jones9:42
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHunter – Nielsen – Grabner7:46
xG 0.33–0.15 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares10:41
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Sim – Konopka – Martin4:24
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Weight – Comeau – Bailey6:46
xG 0.05–0.54 (9%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMottau – Wisniewski10:38
xG 0.50–0.22 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Mottau – Gervais3:53
xG 0.27–0.06 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Martinek – Wisniewski2:06
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).