Wed, Nov 17, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 1, Carolina Hurricanes 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 08 | 111 | 124 |
| CAR | 416 | 06 | 36 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25CARTim GleasonAssists: Chad LaRose, Sergei Samsonov · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 10:41CAREric StaalPPGWGAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Joni Pitkanen · Snap, 0.26 xG0–2
- P1 16:05CAREric StaalPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
- P1 16:46CARChad LaRoseAssists: Tim Gleason, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P3 1:26CARChad LaRoseAssists: Jamie McBain, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–5
- P3 9:31OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Filip Kuba · Slap, 0.02 xG1–5
- P3 13:44CAREric StaalAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Chad LaRose · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–6
- P3 15:54CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Erik Cole · Slap, 0.10 xG1–7
Penalties (15)
- P1 9:32OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:31CARJussi Jokinen: Interference2 min
- P1 15:06OTTRyan Shannon: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 16:25OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:25CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:20OTTSergei Gonchar: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00CARChad LaRose: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:35CAREric Staal: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:35OTTJesse Winchester: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:40CARBrett Carson: Holding2 min
- P3 1:59OTTChris Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:51CARSergei Samsonov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:59OTTChris Campoli: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Fisher – Regin5:58
xG 0.40–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Spezza – Regin4:30
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Kovalev – Spezza – Shannon4:50
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Michalek – Foligno – Winchester4:58
xG 0.03–0.19 (16%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Campoli13:02
xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 15–2goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Phillips10:50
xG 0.58–0.54 (52%)attempts 11–5goals 0–2
- Campoli – Karlsson2:20
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCole – Ruutu – Skinner9:29
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Samsonov – LaRose – Staal7:56
xG 0.72–0.54 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 3–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Sutter11:53
xG 0.29–0.38 (44%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- O'Sullivan – Matsumoto – Tlusty6:29
xG 0.03–0.17 (13%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain12:30
xG 0.78–0.68 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Harrison – Carson8:11
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Carson – McBain2:29
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).