Sun, Nov 21, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Calgary Flames 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 16 | 213 | 18 | 00 | 427 |
| DET | 19 | 011 | 314 | 14 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Brian Rafalski, Nicklas Lidstrom · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 5:21CGYNiklas HagmanAssists: Jarome Iginla · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 0:54CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 4:09CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Alex Tanguay · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 2:28DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Brian Rafalski · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 7:14CGYAlex TanguayUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 11:04DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 19:56DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Brian Rafalski · Snap, 0.16 xG4–4
- OT 1:38DETNicklas LidstromGWGAssists: Darren Helm, Todd Bertuzzi · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:55CGYRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:07CGYTim Jackman: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:38CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P1 17:38CGYNiklas Hagman: Holding2 min
- P2 3:26DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:48CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:48DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:53CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:02DETTodd Bertuzzi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:02DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference2 min
- P3 9:28CGYNiklas Hagman: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:29CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
- P3 18:04CGYJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:04CGYJarome Iginla: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:04DETJustin Abdelkader: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Moss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHagman – Bourque – Backlund9:10
xG 0.50–0.05 (91%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan11:57
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Conroy – Kostopoulos – Jackman6:32
xG 0.27–0.22 (56%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Morrison – Moss – Glencross7:17
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBabchuk – Giordano12:39
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Sarich – Mikkelson9:49
xG 0.38–0.33 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester11:33
xG 0.29–0.60 (33%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg3:37
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Filppula5:12
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Abdelkader – Helm6:49
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen4:13
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lidstrom – Stuart12:39
xG 0.14–0.26 (34%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Salei – Kronwall10:30
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Rafalski – Ericsson10:42
xG 0.61–0.95 (39%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).