Mon, Nov 22, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Boston Bruins 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 07 | 08 | 112 | 127 |
| TBL | 011 | 320 | 05 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:26TBLDana TyrellAssists: Randy Jones, Nate Thompson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:15TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steve Downie · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 11:36TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Dominic Moore, Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–3
- P3 10:38BOSMichael RyderAssists: Blake Wheeler, Jordan Caron · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:55BOSShawn Thornton: Interference2 min
- P2 0:47BOSDennis Seidenberg: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:28TBLSteve Downie: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:20BOSShawn Thornton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:36TBLSteve Downie: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Ryder – Wheeler – Caron6:00
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Recchi – Bergeron – Seguin7:58
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic14:13
xG 0.23–0.66 (26%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand9:20
xG 0.22–1.08 (17%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Stuart2:56
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Hunwick5:43
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Chara – Seidenberg2:28
xG 0.07–0.15 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMalone – Moore – Purcell9:46
xG 0.73–0.11 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos12:59
xG 0.96–0.42 (69%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell2:33
xG 0.25–0.04 (85%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Hall – Bergenheim – Thompson8:00
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Jones14:11
xG 1.64–0.18 (90%)attempts 18–13goals 3–0
- Lundin – Hedman2:00
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Clark – Hedman8:50
xG 0.21–0.20 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).