Wed, Nov 24, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Dallas Stars 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 112 | 17 | 226 |
| OTT | 06 | 18 | 05 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:14DALTrevor DaleyAssists: Brad Richards, Jeff Woywitka · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 16:29OTTRyan ShannonAssists: Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 1:13DALBrenden MorrowGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:50DALNicklas Grossmann: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:49OTTNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:13OTTChris Campoli: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:13DALSteve Ott: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:09OTTSergei Gonchar: Holding2 min
- P2 10:33DALAdam Burish: Holding2 min
- P3 1:54OTTJesse Winchester: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:20OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Segal8:39
xG 0.60–0.08 (88%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Ott – Burish – Benn8:12
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Barch – Petersen – Wandell2:39
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal13:03
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Daley14:40
xG 1.31–0.13 (91%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen13:16
xG 0.39–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Robidas – Grossmann14:04
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Kovalev – Regin – Shannon9:38
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 11–5goals 1–2
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Michalek10:07
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly7:34
xG 0.22–0.48 (32%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Fisher – Foligno – Winchester8:10
xG 0.06–0.70 (7%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Kuba13:45
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Carkner – Hale9:28
xG 0.06–0.29 (17%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Hale3:07
xG 0.07–0.50 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).