Wed, Nov 24, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
New York Rangers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 02 | 313 | 320 |
| TBL | 211 | 314 | 09 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 15:37TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–2
- P2 4:53TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Steve Downie, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 11:05TBLBrett ClarkPPGWGAssists: Steve Downie, Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.15 xG0–4
- P2 16:56TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Mattias Ritola, Sean Bergenheim · Snap, 0.02 xG0–5
- P3 3:58NYRSteve EmingerAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P3 12:51NYRBrian BoyleSHAssists: Marc Staal, Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–5
- P3 18:56NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Michael Del Zotto · Slap, 0.14 xG3–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 6:05NYRRyan Callahan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:47NYRDerek Boogaard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:52NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:34TBLRyan Malone: Interference2 min
- P2 8:34NYRHenrik Lundqvist: Diving2 min
- P2 10:08NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:31TBLBlair Jones: Holding2 min
- P3 5:13TBLAdam Hall: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:26TBLMattias Ohlund: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:26NYRSean Avery: Instigator2 min
- P3 11:26NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:26NYRSean Avery: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:59NYRBrandon Prust: Elbowing2 min
- P3 17:57TBLDominic Moore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 18:26TBLMattias Ohlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:00NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov3:54
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Frolov – Callahan – Stepan2:09
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust9:18
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Avery – Boogaard – Christensen4:16
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Eminger – Del Zotto11:20
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Sauer – Gilroy12:12
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi14:05
xG 0.16–0.54 (22%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Bergenheim – Thompson5:40
xG 0.37–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Ritola – Jones – Tyrell3:21
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos8:35
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 2–8goals 1–1
- Malone – Moore – Purcell7:03
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Jones13:57
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Clark – Hedman9:41
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Lundin – Hedman2:20
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).