Fri, Nov 26, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 015 | 116 | 136 |
| BUF | 216 | 05 | 17 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:05BUFJordan LeopoldPPAssists: Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 7:50BUFThomas VanekPPGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Luke Adam · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 10:58BUFPatrick KaletaSHAssists: Paul Gaustad · Backhand, 0.39 xG0–3
- P3 16:33TORPhil KesselSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:55BUFPaul Gaustad: Boarding2 min
- P1 4:14BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:14TORLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 4:50TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:50TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:50TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:50BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:21TORKris Versteeg: Elbowing2 min
- P1 11:15BUFMike Weber: Charging2 min
- P2 4:49BUFMike Grier: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:04BUFMike Weber: Holding2 min
- P2 19:01BUFMike Grier: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:27BUFAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:07TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin10:30
xG 0.61–0.23 (73%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Kessel – Kadri2:48
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bozak – Kadri9:00
xG 0.19–0.38 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Versteeg3:01
xG 0.04–0.47 (9%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn8:09
xG 0.42–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Aulie – Schenn3:09
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Gunnarsson2:14
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Pominville – Stuart8:20
xG 0.90–0.45 (66%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kaleta – Gerbe – Adam3:45
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Grier – Gaustad – McCormick6:02
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Vanek – Ennis6:18
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers13:39
xG 1.26–0.58 (68%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Morrisonn – Weber9:55
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Leopold – Montador12:31
xG 0.31–0.67 (31%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).