Sun, Dec 5, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 3, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 18 | 27 | 325 |
| NYR | 05 | 113 | 08 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:27OTTChris KellySHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 10:50NYRBrandon PrustSHAssists: Brian Boyle, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 17:36OTTChris KellyGWGAssists: Jarkko Ruutu, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 19:59OTTChris KellyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:21OTTJesse Winchester: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:47NYRRuslan Fedotenko: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:48OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
- P3 3:11OTTChris Campoli: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:44OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Christensen won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Neil – Kelly9:13
xG 0.51–0.12 (82%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Shannon – Foligno – Winchester7:06
xG 0.42–0.05 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Spezza – Butler11:09
xG 0.72–0.60 (54%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Fisher – Michalek11:55
xG 0.76–1.44 (35%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Campoli8:34
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson13:17
xG 0.73–0.67 (52%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips16:28
xG 0.84–1.03 (45%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Boyle – Prust11:43
xG 1.26–0.58 (69%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Stepan11:00
xG 0.68–0.57 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Avery – Gaborik – Christensen10:57
xG 0.31–0.87 (26%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Staal10:53
xG 1.22–0.43 (74%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Staal – Sauer2:07
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto11:15
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).