Thu, Dec 16, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 14 | 07 | 18 | 219 |
| CGY | 19 | 315 | 19 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:14TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 7:11CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Brendan Morrison · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 15:17CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Matt Stajan, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 15:50CGYOlli JokinenPPGWGAssists: Anton Babchuk, Niklas Hagman · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 16:14CGYRene BourqueAssists: Niklas Hagman, Olli Jokinen · Snap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 2:30CGYNiklas HagmanPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 8:45TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:03TORKeith Aulie: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:14CGYAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:14TORMikhail Grabovski: Diving2 min
- P2 11:58CGYOlli Jokinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:40TORMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:18TORMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:29TORDion Phaneuf: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestArmstrong – Versteeg – Kadri3:16
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Orr – Armstrong – Kadri2:02
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Kessel – Bozak2:25
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Mitchell2:59
xG 0.02–0.13 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf17:05
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Lebda – Aulie14:07
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
- Kaberle – Schenn16:43
xG 0.07–0.93 (7%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Stajan12:38
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 15–17goals 1–2
- Morrison – Kotalik – Backlund10:10
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jackman – Moss9:34
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hagman – Bourque11:25
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Bouwmeester14:41
xG 0.99–0.20 (83%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Sarich – Giordano16:21
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Babchuk – Pardy15:41
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 22–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).