Mon, Dec 20, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 02 | 09 | 122 |
| TBL | 211 | 318 | 05 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48TBLDominic MooreAssists: Teddy Purcell, Dana Tyrell · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 15:52CARSergei SamsonovPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 19:59TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Ryan Malone, Dominic Moore · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 14:51TBLBrett ClarkAssists: Martin St. Louis, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 16:26TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–4
- P2 18:58TBLSean BergenheimPPAssists: Brett Clark, Vincent Lecavalier · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:16TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:16CARJussi Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:26TBLBrett Clark: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:15TBLPavel Kubina: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:08TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:12CARJeff Skinner: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:49CARRyan Carter: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:00TBLMatt Smaby: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:00CARTroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:56TBLDominic Moore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:50CARJoni Pitkanen: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 16:22CARJoe Corvo: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:28TBLDominic Moore: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Jokinen – Sutter11:45
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Staal – Skinner8:50
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Bodie – Carter – Boychuk6:17
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Samsonov – LaRose – Dwyer9:06
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Corvo – Gleason12:45
xG 0.70–0.66 (52%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Pitkanen – White6:41
xG 0.05–0.05 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Harrison – White10:29
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Thompson – Tyrell8:38
xG 0.47–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Bergenheim8:52
xG 0.27–0.18 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos6:16
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Hedman3:27
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Lundin11:11
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Clark – Hedman10:09
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).