Wed, Dec 22, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Vancouver Canucks 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 017 | 313 | 18 | 01 | 439 |
| DET | 114 | 111 | 219 | 11 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:12DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Brian Rafalski · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 1:11VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:29DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Daniel Cleary, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 11:21VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–2
- P2 19:39VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Henrik Sedin · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 1:54DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Ruslan Salei · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 12:10VANJeff TambelliniAssists: Ryan Kesler · Snap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 16:06DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brian Rafalski · Snap, 0.23 xG4–4
- OT 2:59DETHenrik ZetterbergGWGAssists: Brian Rafalski, Darren Helm · Snap, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:56DETBrian Rafalski: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:35VANKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
- P2 2:56DETTomas Holmstrom: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:57VANMikael Samuelsson: Interference2 min
- P2 10:33DETValtteri Filppula: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P3 5:30VANAlexander Edler: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:09VANAlexandre Burrows: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows12:04
xG 0.69–0.29 (70%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Kesler – Tambellini – Hansen12:05
xG 0.55–0.65 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Malhotra – Samuelsson – Torres10:38
xG 0.27–0.51 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Bolduc – Glass – Volpatti6:10
xG 0.09–0.62 (12%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa18:54
xG 0.85–0.80 (52%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Ballard – Rome11:09
xG 0.59–0.59 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – Edler16:54
xG 0.68–0.77 (47%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestEaves – Miller – Helm5:56
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Filppula – Franzen3:38
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Franzen4:50
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Hudler – Abdelkader4:58
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Ericsson13:19
xG 1.08–0.38 (74%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- Salei – Kronwall15:07
xG 0.82–0.84 (50%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart14:09
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).