Thu, Dec 23, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 315 | 02 | 112 | 429 |
| BUF | 09 | 320 | 019 | 348 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10FLAChris HigginsAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Tip-in, 0.34 xG1–0
- P1 12:10FLAStephen WeissPPAssists: Michael Frolik, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–0
- P1 13:53FLAChris HigginsAssists: Stephen Weiss, Evgenii Dadonov · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–0
- P2 5:44BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Jason Pominville, Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 8:15BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Tyler Myers, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 12:21BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 14:53FLAJason GarrisonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:40BUFRyan Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 2:49BUFPaul Gaustad: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:19FLAStephen Weiss: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:44FLADmitry Kulikov: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:44BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:44BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:44BUFPatrick Kaleta: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:20BUFPaul Gaustad: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:07FLAMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:40FLADennis Wideman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:49FLADmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:26BUFCody McCormick: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:26FLABryan Allen: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:34FLABryan McCabe: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Santorelli won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Higgins – Dadonov9:55
xG 1.04–0.32 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Bernier – Booth – Matthias6:55
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Weiss – Booth – Dadonov2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Santorelli – Frolik10:03
xG 0.10–0.48 (17%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Kulikov12:25
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Allen – Wideman12:05
xG 0.63–0.96 (40%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
- Weaver – Garrison10:30
xG 0.15–0.63 (19%)attempts 2–18goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestNiedermayer – Vanek – Ennis8:54
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Grier – McCormick – Gerbe3:30
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Grier – Gaustad – McCormick2:29
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe3:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers15:53
xG 1.21–0.91 (57%)attempts 30–10goals 0–1
- Leopold – Montador11:05
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Rivet – Weber13:22
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).