Thu, Dec 23, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 214 | 015 | 338 |
| STL | 314 | 17 | 04 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:21STLErik JohnsonPPAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 13:51DETJohan FranzenAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brian Rafalski · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 14:27STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Alexander Steen, B.J. Crombeen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 18:47STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, David Backes · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 5:51STLMatt D'AgostiniGWGAssists: David Backes, Eric Brewer · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 11:33DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brian Rafalski · Slap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P2 16:51DETPatrick EavesAssists: Darren Helm, Kris Draper · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:58DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:44DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:00STLJay McClement: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:30STLCam Janssen: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:37STLEric Brewer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:08STLErik Johnson: Illegal stick2 min
- P2 17:34DETJohan Franzen: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:34DETNiklas Kronwall: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Cleary – Filppula10:10
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Hudler – Miller – Abdelkader3:39
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Draper – Eaves – Helm3:32
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Draper – Miller – Helm4:10
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Ericsson15:30
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 24–8goals 1–0
- Salei – Kronwall11:28
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Lidstrom – Stuart11:38
xG 0.58–0.65 (47%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Sobotka – D'Agostini9:34
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Janssen – Porter – Cracknell3:55
xG 0.04–0.12 (23%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Winchester – McClement9:55
xG 0.40–0.48 (45%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Steen – Crombeen – Berglund11:10
xG 0.29–0.60 (32%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Johnson13:59
xG 0.78–0.48 (62%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Jackman – Polak13:58
xG 0.44–0.59 (43%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Pietrangelo13:17
xG 0.29–0.52 (35%)attempts 6–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).