Sun, Dec 26, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 15 | 29 | 18 | 422 |
| NJD | 07 | 010 | 113 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:50TORColby ArmstrongAssists: Kris Versteeg · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 8:45TORJohn MitchellGWGAssists: Kris Versteeg, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–0
- P2 17:23TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 12:27NJDRod PelleyPPAssists: Mark Fayne, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 16:47TORColby ArmstrongAssists: Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:05TORJohn Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:56NJDAdam Mair: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:57TORJohn Mitchell: Interference2 min
- P2 4:59TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:59NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:40NJDAnton Volchenkov: Holding2 min
- P3 6:14TORMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:45NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:05NJDAnssi Salmela: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:28TORNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:24TORFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:52NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestArmstrong – Mitchell – Versteeg10:11
xG 0.86–0.13 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 3–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:43
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Orr – Sjostrom – Brent4:04
xG 0.01–0.06 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bozak – Kadri8:33
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Gunnarsson9:01
xG 0.72–0.22 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf14:28
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Schenn13:55
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Zubrus – Clarkson2:16
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Elias – Zajac7:30
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Rolston – Langenbrunner – Zajac2:27
xG 0.04–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Rolston – Zubrus – Clarkson2:34
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Greene3:52
xG 0.11–0.04 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene10:02
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Salmela10:04
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).