Fri, Dec 31, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 112 | 214 | 02 | 338 |
| CBJ | 17 | 29 | 04 | 13 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:45CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 12:13CBJSamuel PahlssonAssists: Chris Clark · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 15:27CBJRick NashAssists: Kristian Huselius, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 18:57OTTMike FisherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 1:18OTTNick FolignoAssists: Jesse Winchester, Chris Neil · Snap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 18:49OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Milan Michalek, Alex Kovalev · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–3
- OT 2:06CBJJakub VoracekGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:56OTTAlex Kovalev: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:10CBJChris Clark: Interference2 min
- P1 5:26OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:48CBJMarc Methot: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:36OTTDaniel Alfredsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:30CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:30OTTBrian Lee: Interference2 min
- P2 3:30OTTBrian Lee: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:30CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:03CBJChris Clark: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:48OTTMatt Carkner: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Fisher – Regin6:19
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Smith – Winchester3:56
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Winchester5:14
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Neil – Kelly – Michalek6:51
xG 0.27–0.22 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Lee9:27
xG 0.55–0.10 (84%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson12:54
xG 0.77–0.66 (54%)attempts 12–16goals 1–2
- Gonchar – Campoli3:18
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHuselius – Vermette – Nash10:43
xG 0.61–0.49 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Dorsett6:23
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Moreau – Clark – Pahlsson10:20
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Umberger – Brassard – Voracek8:57
xG 0.19–0.70 (22%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Stralman11:59
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Hejda2:29
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Methot – Stralman2:34
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).