Sat, Jan 1, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 310 | 26 | 05 | 521 |
| OTT | 011 | 111 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Tomas Kaberle · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 12:24TORTyler BozakGWGAssists: Joey Crabb, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 15:21TORTyler BozakAssists: Joey Crabb, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 3:18TORDarryl BoyceAssists: Kris Versteeg, Colby Armstrong · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–0
- P2 5:46TORLuke SchennAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–0
- P2 13:00OTTSergei GoncharPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson · Slap, 0.04 xG5–1
Penalties (22)
- P1 6:12OTTRyan Shannon: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:07TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:07OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:25OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:25TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:25OTTMatt Carkner: Elbowing2 min
- P1 19:05TORDarryl Boyce: Kneeing2 min
- P1 19:43TORMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:02OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:33TORMike Komisarek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:50TORFrancois Beauchemin: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:29OTTMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:29OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:29TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:23OTTAlex Kovalev: Holding2 min
- P3 12:26TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:26OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:26OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:26TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:26TORColton Orr: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:26OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:26TORColton Orr: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:29
xG 0.61–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Crabb – Kessel – Bozak7:47
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 4–7goals 2–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Versteeg8:49
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Orr – Sjostrom – Brent6:09
xG 0.00–0.73 (0%)attempts 1–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn10:30
xG 0.85–0.34 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 3–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf13:51
xG 0.59–0.28 (68%)attempts 6–15goals 2–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson11:18
xG 0.15–0.83 (15%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Kelly – Michalek5:12
xG 0.55–0.14 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Shannon – O'Brien – Smith3:39
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Shannon3:06
xG 0.02–0.03 (44%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Foligno – Winchester4:40
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Campoli13:23
xG 1.03–0.40 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Kuba – Carkner9:37
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson9:01
xG 0.23–0.42 (36%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).