Wed, Jan 5, 2011·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 211 | 05 | 26 | 422 |
| CHI | 012 | 215 | 010 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40DALBrenden MorrowPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–0
- P1 7:28DALMike RibeiroPPAssists: Brad Richards, Brenden Morrow · Tip-in, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 9:35CHIFernando PisaniAssists: Bryan Bickell, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 11:43CHITomas KopeckyAssists: Patrick Kane, Jassen Cullimore · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 10:46DALMike RibeiroPPGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 18:59DALSteve OttENAssists: Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:00CHITomas Kopecky: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:34CHIBrian Campbell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:25DALJames Neal: Interference2 min
- P2 12:53DALNicklas Grossmann: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:33DALBrandon Segal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:34DALStephane Robidas: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:11CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:55DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Burish – Wandell7:16
xG 0.16–0.05 (78%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Barch – Sutherby – Segal2:56
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal12:01
xG 0.19–0.39 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn10:50
xG 0.09–0.66 (12%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann17:00
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen8:01
xG 0.11–0.26 (31%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Woywitka – Daley16:39
xG 0.20–0.46 (30%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Toews8:31
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Brouwer – Kane5:02
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Pisani – Bolland – Kane5:37
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bolland – Bickell – Stalberg2:07
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook19:01
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Campbell – Hjalmarsson14:32
xG 0.75–0.56 (57%)attempts 18–13goals 2–0
- Campbell – Keith3:38
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).