Fri, Jan 7, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Toronto Maple Leafs 9, Atlanta Thrashers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 216 | 612 | 16 | 934 |
| ATL | 113 | 011 | 220 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36ATLToby EnstromAssists: Ben Eager · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 9:43TORKris VersteegAssists: Colby Armstrong, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 15:08TORMikhail GrabovskiPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.51 xG2–1
- P2 12:06TORColby ArmstrongAssists: Kris Versteeg, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 13:25TORNikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Mike Komisarek · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–1
- P2 15:15TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
- P2 18:00TORNikolay KuleminPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle · Snap, 0.05 xG6–1
- P2 19:14TORClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.08 xG7–1
- P2 19:49TORClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Kris Versteeg, Tomas Kaberle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG8–1
- P3 1:32TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.20 xG9–1
- P3 14:09ATLPatrice CormierUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG9–2
- P3 19:12ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Niclas Bergfors · Wrist, 0.05 xG9–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:38ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:38TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:49TORMike Komisarek: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:52ATLBen Eager: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:52ATLBen Eager: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:42TORMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:05ATLDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:05ATLBen Eager: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P2 17:05TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:08TORJoey Crabb: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyce won the faceoff against Burmistrov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin9:04
xG 1.17–0.17 (87%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Versteeg7:04
xG 0.22–0.11 (65%)attempts 4–6goals 2–0
- Crabb – Kessel – Bozak8:31
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Gunnarsson9:51
xG 1.19–0.24 (83%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf7:59
xG 0.34–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Schenn10:50
xG 0.21–0.39 (36%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Eager – Cormier5:47
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Boulton – Antropov – Burmistrov4:02
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Ladd – Bergfors – Little7:37
xG 0.25–0.26 (48%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Modin – Stewart – Peverley4:19
xG 0.05–0.15 (25%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sopel – Hainsey12:40
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:10
xG 0.47–0.58 (45%)attempts 19–7goals 2–1
- Oduya – Bogosian12:25
xG 0.25–1.38 (15%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).