Sat, Jan 8, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 07 | 210 | 227 |
| OTT | 07 | 112 | 013 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:25OTTZack SmithAssists: Jesse Winchester, Ryan Shannon · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P3 1:47TBLAdam HallAssists: Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 5:43TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:06TBLSteve Downie: Charging2 min
- P1 12:06OTTChris Phillips: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:06TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:41OTTJarkko Ruutu: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:41OTTJarkko Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:28OTTZack Smith: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:02OTTJesse Winchester: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:52TBLMattias Ohlund: Interference2 min
- P3 14:26TBLSteve Downie: Holding2 min
- P3 19:13OTTMilan Michalek: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Winchester won the faceoff against Hall
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Downie – Stamkos6:12
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell6:47
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Malone5:28
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos6:10
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Lundin10:06
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Kubina – Jones6:25
xG 0.38–0.33 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Clark – Hedman7:57
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Regin – Foligno7:40
xG 1.27–0.21 (86%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly9:24
xG 0.33–0.20 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Shannon – Smith – Winchester7:11
xG 0.43–0.54 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Michalek10:42
xG 0.15–0.75 (16%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Campoli13:31
xG 1.37–0.15 (90%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Kuba – Lee10:22
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Phillips – Karlsson12:21
xG 0.84–0.83 (50%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).