Tue, Jan 11, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 012 | 011 | 218 | 241 |
| DAL | 16 | 110 | 14 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:32DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Philip Larsen · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 14:35DALJamie BennAssists: Steve Ott, Adam Burish · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P3 5:50EDMJean-Francois JacquesAssists: Steve MacIntyre, Ladislav Smid · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 7:38EDMRyan JonesAssists: Liam Reddox · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 8:51DALJames NealGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:51EDMSteve MacIntyre: Interference2 min
- P2 2:24DALNicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min
- P2 9:57EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:55EDMKurtis Foster: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:55DALJamie Langenbrunner: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:25DALAdam Burish: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:50DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
- P3 15:33DALJamie Langenbrunner: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:33EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00EDMKurtis Foster: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00EDMKurtis Foster: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Omark – Paajarvi12:19
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Penner – Hall12:51
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Reddox – Cogliano11:03
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry12:41
xG 0.68–0.21 (77%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Peckham17:26
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Foster – Chorney8:57
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 13–7goals 1–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Burish – Benn3:29
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn6:38
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Langenbrunner – Morrow – Ribeiro5:07
xG 0.14–0.34 (30%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Barch – Sutherby – Wandell4:40
xG 0.04–0.29 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Larsen10:05
xG 0.71–0.41 (64%)attempts 9–12goals 3–1
- Robidas – Grossmann15:11
xG 0.29–0.46 (39%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Daley16:36
xG 0.34–0.87 (28%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).