Sat, Jan 15, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Detroit Red Wings 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 29 | 114 | 27 | 00 | 530 |
| DET | 29 | 214 | 110 | 11 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 4:12CBJGrant ClitsomeAssists: Jakub Voracek, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 17:34DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Jiri Hudler · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 19:20DETDrew MillerAssists: Darren Helm, Kris Draper · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 2:57CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Jakub Voracek, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 3:57DETJonathan EricssonAssists: Darren Helm · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 8:02DETBrian RafalskiAssists: Drew Miller, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 1:10CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Derick Brassard · Backhand, 0.40 xG4–4
- P3 3:32DETKris DraperAssists: Drew Miller, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–5
- P3 18:56CBJRick NashAssists: Grant Clitsome, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–5
- OT 0:45DETJohan FranzenGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:31CBJDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:39DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:50DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHuselius – Vermette – Umberger10:45
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett7:48
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek12:52
xG 0.74–0.71 (51%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
- Wilson – Boll – Calvert6:17
xG 0.07–0.20 (25%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Methot6:36
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Russell10:28
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Hejda – Methot11:01
xG 0.70–0.74 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 2–3
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Eaves – Franzen11:58
xG 0.96–0.18 (84%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Draper – Miller – Helm9:14
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 3–0
- Abdelkader – Mursak – Tatar6:09
xG 0.30–0.07 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Miller – Franzen3:23
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Kronwall18:45
xG 1.23–0.51 (71%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Salei – Ericsson2:01
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Salei – Kindl11:32
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).