Sat, Jan 15, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 2, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 110 | 013 | 230 |
| SJS | 14 | 118 | 27 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:23STLB.J. CrombeenAssists: Brad Winchester, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:18SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 11:57SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Dan Boyle · Slap, 0.58 xG1–2
- P2 17:53STLErik JohnsonAssists: Alexander Steen, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 4:35SJSDany HeatleyGWGAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Jason Demers · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 12:57SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Scott Nichol · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:04STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:04SJSBrandon Mashinter: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:31SJSNiclas Wallin: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:22SJSDan Boyle: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:52STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:41STLIan Cole: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:46STLIan Cole: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:04STLEric Brewer: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:46SJSBenn Ferriero: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:46STLIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:57STLVladimir Sobotka: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:00STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:00SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Crombeen – Berglund7:58
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Steen – Berglund – McRae2:04
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Winchester – McClement7:10
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Porter – Reaves – McRae3:12
xG 0.01–0.13 (8%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak14:54
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Cole – Pietrangelo6:10
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Brewer – Cole3:56
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Heatley – Couture10:30
xG 0.58–0.21 (74%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – McGinn2:49
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Pavelski – Setoguchi11:11
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray9:47
xG 0.75–0.27 (74%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Wallin – Demers4:13
xG 0.43–0.11 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Joslin6:11
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).