Sun, Jan 16, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 210 | 114 | 03 | 327 |
| NYR | 07 | 019 | 210 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:14PHIJeff CarterAssists: Matt Carle, Ville Leino · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 14:54PHIVille LeinoAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 4:25PHIMike RichardsSHGWGAssists: Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 9:13NYRWojtek WolskiAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 11:37NYRDerek StepanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Wojtek Wolski · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:02NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:52PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:48NYRMatt Gilroy: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:34PHIAndrej Meszaros: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:32PHIMatt Carle: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:32NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:32NYRKris Newbury: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:32NYRKris Newbury: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:32PHIMatt Walker: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:32PHIMatt Walker: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:01NYRBrandon Prust: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:25PHIAndrej Meszaros: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:28NYRKris Newbury: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Giroux – van Riemsdyk11:29
xG 1.74–0.68 (72%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Richards – Nodl7:04
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Shelley – Betts – Powe4:49
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Richards – Nodl – Powe2:11
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros5:48
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 6–8goals 2–1
- Walker – Carle8:07
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros9:54
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestWolski – Stepan – Zuccarello7:39
xG 0.53–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–2goals 2–0
- Boyle – Dubinsky – Prust6:52
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Drury – Stepan – Zuccarello3:43
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Newbury – Wolski3:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Sauer13:54
xG 0.68–0.46 (59%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Staal – Sauer2:06
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Gilroy9:35
xG 0.44–0.51 (46%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).