Thu, Jan 20, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 4, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 210 | 15 | 424 |
| EDM | 115 | 113 | 04 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:40DALJamie BennAssists: Adam Burish, Stephane Robidas · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 12:51EDMRyan JonesSHAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Tom Gilbert · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 6:26DALMike RibeiroAssists: Nicklas Grossmann · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 12:51DALJames NealPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.38 xG3–1
- P2 18:52EDMJeff PetryAssists: Ladislav Smid, Magnus Paajarvi · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:59DALAdam BurishENUnassisted · Slap, 0.43 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:06DALKarlis Skrastins: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:07EDMZack Stortini: Interference2 min
- P1 19:02DALNicklas Grossmann: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:08EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:27DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:34DALMark Fistric: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:03EDMTaylor Hall: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fraser won the faceoff against Wandell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Eriksson – Neal12:02
xG 0.50–0.08 (86%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Ott – Burish – Benn5:39
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Langenbrunner – Ott – Burish2:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann12:42
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Robidas – Skrastins2:01
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Daley13:35
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJacques – Fraser – Stortini6:23
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi11:13
xG 0.43–0.15 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Jones – Reddox – Cogliano10:21
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Penner – Hall10:44
xG 0.15–0.47 (24%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry14:07
xG 0.68–0.03 (96%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Peckham13:38
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Foster – Chorney10:39
xG 0.33–0.59 (35%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).