Wed, Feb 2, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 7, Ottawa Senators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 213 | 212 | 313 | 738 |
| OTT | 311 | 115 | 18 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15OTTAlex KovalevPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:52DETJohan FranzenAssists: Ruslan Salei, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–1
- P1 7:40DETJohan FranzenAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Todd Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 8:40OTTPeter ReginAssists: Alex Kovalev, Chris Campoli · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P1 11:12OTTChris CampoliAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 10:36DETKris DraperAssists: Patrick Eaves, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 10:49DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P2 11:18OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Peter Regin, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–4
- P3 0:30DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brian Rafalski · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 0:59OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Alex Kovalev, Peter Regin · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–5
- P3 7:10DETJohan FranzenPPGWGAssists: Brian Rafalski, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.50 xG6–5
- P3 19:26DETJohan FranzenENAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.64 xG7–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:32DETNiklas Kronwall: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:10OTTMike Fisher: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:59OTTChris Campoli: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:51OTTChris Phillips: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:40DETTodd Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:48OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDraper – Eaves – Helm11:19
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Miller – Abdelkader – Mursak9:08
xG 0.09–0.23 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Zetterberg – Franzen14:02
xG 0.49–0.81 (38%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Cleary – Filppula – Hudler12:00
xG 0.13–0.57 (18%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSalei – Kindl14:12
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Lidstrom – Kronwall17:15
xG 0.55–1.06 (34%)attempts 19–18goals 2–3
- Rafalski – Ericsson16:57
xG 0.32–0.86 (27%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Fisher – Foligno14:10
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 11–15goals 1–2
- Shannon – Smith – Winchester7:48
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Michalek – Regin12:37
xG 0.74–0.57 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 3–1
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly12:21
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Campoli17:53
xG 1.15–0.37 (76%)attempts 23–13goals 4–0
- Phillips – Karlsson16:19
xG 0.69–0.72 (49%)attempts 12–19goals 0–2
- Kuba – Lee12:48
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).