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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 2, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Detroit Red Wings 7, Ottawa Senators 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.

OTT winsDET wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:29Shot by Phillips, saved by Howard
  3. P1 0:32Kronwall: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Alfredsson, Phillips, Fisher, Foligno, Karlsson · DET Lidstrom, Bertuzzi, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Franzen

  4. P1 1:12Shot by Karlsson, saved by Howard5v4
  5. P1 1:15Goal by Kovalev (Gonchar, Karlsson)5v4+13 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kovalev, Gonchar, Michalek, Regin, Karlsson · DET Salei, Ericsson, Eaves, Helm

  6. P1 2:40Shot by Franzen, saved by Lehner
  7. P1 3:08Shot by Fisher, saved by Howard
  8. P1 4:08Shot by Kindl, saved by Lehner
  9. P1 5:21Shot by Neil, saved by Howard
  10. P1 5:51Shot by Franzen, saved by Lehner
  11. P1 6:50Shot by Salei, saved by Lehner
  12. P1 6:52Goal by Franzen (Salei, Filppula)+15 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kovalev, Phillips, Michalek, Regin, Karlsson · DET Salei, Zetterberg, Filppula, Franzen, Kindl

  13. P1 7:40Goal by Franzen (Zetterberg, Bertuzzi)+19 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Alfredsson, Kuba, Fisher, Lee, Foligno · DET Lidstrom, Bertuzzi, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Franzen

  14. P1 7:59Shot by Eaves, saved by Lehner
  15. P1 8:40Goal by Regin (Kovalev, Campoli)+19 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kovalev, Gonchar, Campoli, Michalek, Regin · DET Draper, Rafalski, Ericsson, Eaves, Helm

  16. P1 11:12Goal by Campoli (Alfredsson, Foligno)+16 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Fisher, Campoli, Foligno · DET Lidstrom, Bertuzzi, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Franzen

  17. P1 12:36Shot by Kronwall, saved by Lehner
  18. P1 13:38Shot by Cleary, saved by Lehner
  19. P1 15:18Shot by Smith, saved by Howard
  20. P1 16:19Shot by Franzen, saved by Lehner
  21. P1 17:23Shot by Rafalski, saved by Lehner
  22. P1 18:00Shot by Ruutu, saved by Howard
  23. P1 18:16Shot by Campoli, saved by Howard
  24. P1 18:30Shot by Draper, saved by Lehner
  25. P1 18:48Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Lehner
  26. P1 19:09Shot by Phillips, saved by Howard
  27. P1 0:00Period end
  28. P2 0:00Period start
  29. P2 0:44Shot by Phillips, saved by Howard
  30. P2 0:53Shot by Alfredsson, saved by Howard
  31. P2 3:25Shot by Mursak, saved by Lehner
  32. P2 3:34Shot by Winchester, saved by Howard
  33. P2 3:43Shot by Shannon, saved by Howard
  34. P2 3:49Shot by Karlsson, saved by Howard
  35. P2 3:51Shot by Fisher, saved by Howard
  36. P2 4:11Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Lehner
  37. P2 5:10Shot by Regin, saved by Howard
  38. P2 5:32Shot by Regin, saved by Howard
  39. P2 6:05Shot by Kelly, saved by Howard
  40. P2 7:32Shot by Kovalev, saved by Howard
  41. P2 7:59Shot by Lidstrom, saved by Lehner
  42. P2 9:01Shot by Neil, saved by Howard
  43. P2 10:01Shot by Neil, saved by Howard
  44. P2 10:33Shot by Helm, saved by Lehner
  45. P2 10:36Goal by Draper (Eaves, Helm)+22 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Ruutu, Neil, Kelly, Lee · DET Draper, Salei, Eaves, Kindl, Helm

  46. P2 10:49Goal by Kronwall (Lidstrom)+26 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Alfredsson, Phillips, Fisher, Foligno, Karlsson · DET Lidstrom, Bertuzzi, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Franzen

  47. P2 11:16Shot by Michalek, saved by Howard
  48. P2 11:18Goal by Michalek (Regin, Campoli)+26 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kovalev, Gonchar, Campoli, Michalek, Regin · DET Lidstrom, Cleary, Kronwall, Filppula, Hudler

  49. P2 15:12Shot by Franzen, saved by Elliott
  50. P2 15:22Shot by Franzen, saved by Elliott
  51. P2 15:29Shot by Filppula, saved by Elliott
  52. P2 17:48Shot by Winchester, saved by Howard
  53. P2 18:46Shot by Kronwall, saved by Elliott
  54. P2 19:10Fisher: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Fisher, Campoli, Foligno · DET Bertuzzi, Kronwall, Filppula, Ericsson, Franzen

  55. P2 19:17Shot by Filppula, saved by Elliott4v5
  56. P2 19:22Shot by Hudler, saved by Elliott4v5
  57. P2 0:00Period end
  58. P3 0:00Period start
  59. P3 0:30Goal by Franzen (Zetterberg, Rafalski)4v5+29 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Michalek, Winchester, Karlsson · DET Lidstrom, Bertuzzi, Rafalski, Zetterberg, Franzen

  60. P3 0:53Shot by Michalek, saved by Howard
  61. P3 0:59Goal by Michalek (Kovalev, Regin)+29 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kovalev, Gonchar, Campoli, Michalek, Regin · DET Lidstrom, Cleary, Kronwall, Filppula, Hudler

  62. P3 2:27Shot by Salei, saved by Elliott
  63. P3 2:59Shot by Neil, saved by Howard
  64. P3 5:51Shot by Eaves, saved by Elliott
  65. P3 5:59Campoli: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Ruutu, Neil, Kelly, Campoli · DET Draper, Rafalski, Hudler, Ericsson, Eaves, Helm

  66. P3 6:06Shot by Lidstrom, saved by Elliott4v5
  67. P3 6:35Shot by Hudler, saved by Elliott4v5
  68. P3 6:51Phillips: Cross checking (2 min)4v5

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Kelly, Michalek, Karlsson · DET Lidstrom, Cleary, Kronwall, Filppula, Hudler

  69. P3 7:10Goal by Franzen (Rafalski, Lidstrom)3v5+31 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kuba, Fisher, Lee · DET Lidstrom, Bertuzzi, Rafalski, Zetterberg, Franzen

  70. P3 8:15Shot by Rafalski, saved by Elliott4v5
  71. P3 8:51Shot by Hudler, saved by Elliott
  72. P3 8:57Shot by Ericsson, saved by Elliott
  73. P3 9:35Shot by Cleary, saved by Elliott
  74. P3 10:48Shot by Mursak, saved by Elliott
  75. P3 12:20Shot by Campoli, saved by Howard
  76. P3 12:25Shot by Gonchar, saved by Howard
  77. P3 12:51Shot by Helm, saved by Elliott
  78. P3 16:00Shot by Karlsson, saved by Howard
  79. P3 16:40Bertuzzi: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Gonchar, Alfredsson, Fisher, Campoli, Foligno · DET Lidstrom, Bertuzzi, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Franzen

  80. P3 19:26Goal by Franzen (Zetterberg)6v5+3 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Kovalev, Gonchar, Alfredsson, Kuba, Kelly, Michalek · DET Lidstrom, Bertuzzi, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Franzen

  81. P3 19:48Shot by Phillips, saved by Howard
  82. P3 19:48Neil: Misconduct (10 min)

    On ice: OTT Phillips, Ruutu, Neil, Kelly, Lee · DET Draper, Salei, Ericsson, Eaves, Helm

  83. P3 19:58Shot by Ruutu, saved by Howard
  84. P3 0:00Period end
  85. P3 0:00Final