Thu, Feb 3, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 06 | 09 | 012 | 027 |
| TOR | 013 | 213 | 115 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:28TORClarke MacArthurGWGAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 14:52TORDarryl BoycePPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 6:25TORKris VersteegAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Colby Armstrong · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:45CARJay Harrison: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:48TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:48CARTim Gleason: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:27TORMike Komisarek: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:51TORJames Reimer: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:10CARZach Boychuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:43TORDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00TORKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:50CARTuomo Ruutu: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestLaRose – Staal – Boychuk5:14
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Cole – Staal – Boychuk5:26
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Ruutu – Skinner4:16
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Cole – Staal2:27
xG 0.02–0.06 (24%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain2:29
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Harrison – White4:39
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Corvo – Harrison2:42
xG 0.12–0.10 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:38
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Sjostrom – Kessel – Bozak3:10
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Brent – Versteeg5:34
xG 0.49–0.36 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Versteeg4:47
xG 0.04–0.03 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Schenn2:44
xG 0.28–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf15:04
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson8:00
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).