Tue, Feb 8, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 27 | 012 | 37 | 526 |
| NYI | 112 | 110 | 112 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29TORColby ArmstrongAssists: Darryl Boyce, Tomas Kaberle · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 6:31TORJay RosehillAssists: Luke Schenn · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 10:48NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 15:02NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Radek Martinek, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–2
- P3 2:34TORTomas KaberleAssists: Colby Armstrong, Darryl Boyce · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 8:49TORNikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 14:53TORFredrik SjostromAssists: Colby Armstrong, Darryl Boyce · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 18:08NYIRob SchrempAssists: Milan Jurcina, Matt Martin · Tip-in, 0.01 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:53TORTomas Kaberle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:59TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:10TORJay Rosehill: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:24NYIJeremy Colliton: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:19NYITy Wishart: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:03NYIAndrew MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P3 4:21NYIRadek Martinek: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:38TORLuke Schenn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:56NYIPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Kessel – Kulemin11:03
xG 0.75–0.10 (88%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Armstrong – Crabb – Boyce7:26
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 2–0
- MacArthur – Versteeg – Bozak9:57
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Rosehill4:22
xG 0.22–1.07 (17%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Phaneuf3:17
xG 0.29–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Lebda6:58
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf14:21
xG 0.27–0.56 (33%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner10:33
xG 0.90–0.00 (100%)attempts 19–3goals 1–0
- Konopka – Bailey – Martin2:00
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gillies – Konopka – Martin3:38
xG 0.19–0.23 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Colliton – Schremp – Bailey6:08
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Hillen16:10
xG 1.27–0.34 (79%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic12:29
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Jurcina – Wishart12:41
xG 0.36–0.54 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).