Sat, Feb 12, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 3, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 14 | 15 | 19 | 318 |
| NSH | 110 | 118 | 311 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:05COLKevin PorterAssists: Paul Stastny, Matt Hunwick · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 11:16NSHShea WeberAssists: Martin Erat, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 4:36NSHMartin EratAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P2 9:13COLDavid JonesAssists: Daniel Winnik, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 2:54COLMatt DucheneAssists: Brandon Yip, Kevin Porter · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 4:11NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: David Legwand, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 17:30NSHCody FransonGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:14NSHDavid LegwandENAssists: Martin Erat, Mike Fisher · Backhand, 0.63 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:53COLDavid Jones: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:09COLPeter Forsberg: Interference2 min
- P2 15:18NSHSteve Sullivan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:16COLPeter Forsberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:44NSHMike Fisher: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smithson won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestJones – Porter – Stastny3:49
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Porter – Yip – Duchene3:09
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Forsberg – Hejduk – Duchene4:57
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Dupuis – Winnik – McLeod2:08
xG 0.01–0.05 (15%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- O'Byrne – Gaunce2:27
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Shattenkirk5:05
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Wilson2:15
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – Legwand – Hornqvist10:29
xG 0.97–0.14 (87%)attempts 21–4goals 2–0
- Dumont – Halischuk – Spaling4:09
xG 0.59–0.03 (96%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Fisher – Erat – Kostitsyn13:16
xG 0.67–0.16 (80%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Smithson – Ward – Wilson9:51
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Sulzer11:35
xG 0.94–0.28 (77%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Suter – Weber17:02
xG 0.75–0.31 (71%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Franson8:29
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 12–2goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).