Sat, Feb 12, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 210 | 08 | 226 |
| VAN | 113 | 212 | 18 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:42VANAlexandre BurrowsPPAssists: Mason Raymond, Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 2:11CGYTim JackmanAssists: Matt Stajan, Anton Babchuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 4:17CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Brendan Morrison, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 10:40VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Mason Raymond, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 13:20VANMikael SamuelssonPPGWGAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:18VANAlexandre BurrowsENAssists: Aaron Rome, Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.57 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:23CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:02CGYSteve Staios: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:23CGYAnton Babchuk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:49VANDaniel Sedin: Holding2 min
- P3 4:39VANManny Malhotra: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:05VANSami Salo: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Iginla – Glencross7:30
xG 0.60–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Morrison – Iginla – Bourque6:49
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Backlund – Bouma5:42
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Bourque5:30
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Bouwmeester3:57
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Staios – Babchuk10:11
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano2:37
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Kesler – Raymond11:41
xG 0.62–0.22 (74%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Torres – Glass – Oreskovich3:52
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Sedin – Sedin2:04
xG 0.02–0.04 (32%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Tambellini – Hansen8:23
xG 0.04–0.17 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRome – Tanev11:16
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Salo – Ehrhoff14:34
xG 0.25–0.19 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Bieksa2:35
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).