Sun, Feb 13, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
San Jose Sharks 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 011 | 19 | 230 |
| FLA | 04 | 17 | 211 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:57SJSKent HuskinsAssists: Joe Pavelski, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 19:31FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Cory Stillman, Keaton Ellerby · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 2:02SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Dany Heatley, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 10:36FLAChris HigginsAssists: Marty Reasoner, Dennis Wideman · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 17:59FLAJason GarrisonGWGAssists: Marty Reasoner, Chris Higgins · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P2 1:50SJSTorrey Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:19SJSDouglas Murray: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:51SJSJoe Pavelski: Holding2 min
- P2 18:13SJSJamal Mayers: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:13SJSJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:13FLABryan Allen: Instigator2 min
- P2 18:13FLABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:13FLABryan Allen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 2:16FLAMike Weaver: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Pavelski – Mitchell12:15
xG 0.49–0.08 (87%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Mayers – Nichol – Eager5:17
xG 0.47–0.18 (73%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Wellwood – Clowe – Couture13:04
xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi12:13
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 20–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray17:40
xG 1.23–0.17 (88%)attempts 28–12goals 0–1
- Huskins – Vlasic14:12
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Wallin – Demers12:54
xG 0.29–0.87 (25%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Weiss – Skille3:25
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Reasoner – Higgins – Olesz4:13
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 2–1
- Olesz – Booth – Santorelli2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Timmins4:11
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Ellerby3:19
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Wideman – Garrison4:33
xG 0.08–0.13 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Allen – Callahan6:51
xG 0.00–0.10 (3%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).