Thu, Feb 17, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 1, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 117 | 012 | 137 |
| EDM | 111 | 08 | 39 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15EDMAles HemskyAssists: Shawn Horcoff · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 4:06MTLJeff HalpernAssists: Lars Eller, Roman Hamrlik · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P3 3:58EDMJordan EberleGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 4:13EDMRyan JonesAssists: Jean-Francois Jacques, Liam Reddox · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 19:06EDMAles HemskyENAssists: Dustin Penner, Theo Peckham · Wrist, 0.64 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P2 13:07EDMDustin Penner: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:10MTLJeff Halpern: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:30MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:25EDMShawn Horcoff: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:25MTLBenoit Pouliot: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:25EDMShawn Horcoff: Cross checking5 min
- P3 18:25MTLBenoit Pouliot: Cross checking5 min
- P3 18:25MTLBenoit Pouliot: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:25EDMShawn Horcoff: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Reddox
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Pouliot – Eller3:45
xG 1.26–0.09 (94%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Gomez – Moen – Kostitsyn12:05
xG 0.97–0.35 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Gionta – Plekanec – Pacioretty12:21
xG 0.55–0.14 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Gomez – Gionta – Kostitsyn2:33
xG 0.04–0.13 (25%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Weber8:27
xG 1.47–0.47 (76%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Picard – Weber12:20
xG 0.84–0.24 (78%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski3:04
xG 0.20–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJacques – Jones – Reddox9:08
xG 0.45–0.05 (91%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Eberle – Hall11:44
xG 0.41–0.78 (34%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi11:24
xG 0.70–1.15 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Penner13:21
xG 0.14–1.42 (9%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Gilbert – Smid14:49
xG 0.63–0.63 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Peckham2:41
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Smid2:00
xG 0.08–0.24 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).