Sat, Feb 19, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Florida Panthers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 110 | 18 | 02 | 1 | 326 |
| TBL | 112 | 013 | 18 | 03 | 0 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45TBLMarc-Andre BergeronAssists: Randy Jones, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 0:24FLADavid BoothPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Stephen Weiss · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 0:14TBLSean BergenheimAssists: Dominic Moore, Adam Hall · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 17:00FLAMike SantorelliPPAssists: Cory Stillman, Bryan McCabe · Backhand, 0.39 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Mike Santorelli scored
- 2. TBL Adam Hall stopped
- 3. FLA David Booth stopped
- 4. TBL Dominic Moore stopped
- 5. FLA Cory Stillman stopped
- 6. TBL Steve Downie stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:56FLAMike Weaver: Boarding2 min
- P1 10:33FLACory Stillman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:55FLAKeaton Ellerby: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:38TBLDominic Moore: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:09TBLMattias Ohlund: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:17FLAMarty Reasoner: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:28FLADavid Booth: Interference2 min
- P3 15:26TBLNate Thompson: Boarding2 min · PPG
- OT 2:20FLARadek Dvorak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Dvorak – Reasoner10:51
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Higgins – Olesz – Santorelli7:59
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Timmins4:15
xG 0.09–0.15 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Weiss – Booth – Skille11:10
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ellerby2:33
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wideman – Ellerby3:59
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- McCabe – Wideman7:37
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Gagne – Thompson5:38
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hall – Moore – Bergenheim10:17
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos11:11
xG 0.37–0.24 (60%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell3:40
xG 0.03–0.40 (7%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Hedman2:26
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Kubina – Jones10:05
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Brewer12:40
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).