Fri, Feb 25, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 4, Calgary Flames 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 110 | 111 | 02 | 1 | 433 |
| CGY | 19 | 28 | 05 | 02 | 0 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Logan Couture · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 18:05CGYAnton BabchukAssists: Steve Staios · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 9:37SJSKyle WellwoodAssists: Jamal Mayers, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–1
- P2 15:54CGYDavid MossAssists: Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 17:30CGYNiklas HagmanAssists: Brendan Morrison, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 17:26SJSRyane CloweAssists: Patrick Marleau, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. SJS Kyle Wellwood stopped
- 2. CGY Rene Bourque stopped
- 3. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 4. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
- 5. SJS Ryane Clowe scored
- 6. CGY Olli Jokinen stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:07CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:07SJSBen Eager: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:43SJSIan White: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:44CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:44SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:17SJSRyane Clowe: Holding2 min
- P2 19:17SJSRyane Clowe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:03CGYRobyn Regehr: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:21CGYMatt Stajan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Setoguchi – Couture11:43
xG 0.59–0.13 (82%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Wellwood – Pavelski – Mitchell2:49
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Marleau – Heatley – Clowe11:09
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Eager – Pavelski – Mitchell4:39
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWallin – White13:25
xG 1.21–0.27 (82%)attempts 18–11goals 2–1
- Murray – Braun13:46
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers17:05
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 17–20goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Stajan – Bourque4:21
xG 0.40–0.09 (82%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Stajan – Bourque4:12
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross12:05
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Kostopoulos – Hagman – Backlund5:32
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Bouwmeester17:03
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Staios – Babchuk11:26
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
- Sarich – Giordano17:12
xG 0.16–1.13 (12%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).