Sat, Feb 26, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Washington Capitals 3, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 110 | 27 | 322 |
| NYI | 114 | 18 | 09 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:48NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Michael Grabner, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 0:33NYITravis HamonicUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 9:44WSHBrooks LaichAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 2:24WSHMike KnubleAssists: Brooks Laich, Marcus Johansson · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 5:41WSHAlexander SeminGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:08WSHJeff Schultz: Holding2 min
- P1 7:35NYIAl Montoya: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:30WSHJason Chimera: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:26NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:26WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:07WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:08NYIMatt Moulson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:12WSHAlexander Semin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Hendricks – Steckel2:06
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Chimera – Gordon – Beagle3:51
xG 0.11–0.01 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom5:38
xG 0.17–0.13 (58%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Bradley – Steckel – Gordon2:55
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson13:36
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 18–5goals 1–2
- Sloan – Alzner2:21
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hannan – Schultz14:59
xG 0.54–0.59 (48%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner12:05
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:19
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Konopka – Haley – Martin3:24
xG 0.25–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Comeau – Bailey – Martin2:14
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWishart – Hillen12:49
xG 1.13–0.67 (63%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Gervais – Katic6:44
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Wishart – Hamonic2:12
xG 0.01–0.03 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).