Sun, Feb 27, 2011·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 0, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 03 | 014 | 027 |
| CGY | 06 | 09 | 15 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:39CGYDavid MossGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:03STLB.J. Crombeen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 0:00CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:27STLBarret Jackman: Interference2 min
- P2 10:32STLMatt D'Agostini: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:40CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:56CGYCory Sarich: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Crombeen – D'Agostini3:15
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McDonald – Boyes – Backes8:02
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Oshie – Stewart – Berglund11:57
xG 0.48–0.53 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Shattenkirk2:00
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Strachan9:36
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo14:16
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Stajan – Bourque5:43
xG 0.23–0.08 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Glencross4:49
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Hagman – Backlund3:55
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Morrison – Iginla – Tanguay5:05
xG 0.02–0.13 (14%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Giordano2:04
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sarich – Regehr2:06
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester15:42
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).