Sat, Mar 5, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 29 | 19 | 15 | 423 |
| TBL | 013 | 114 | 118 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27MTLHal GillAssists: Brian Gionta, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 8:41MTLDavid DesharnaisPPAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 1:25TBLDominic MoorePPAssists: Pavel Kubina, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P2 14:05MTLMax PaciorettyPPGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–1
- P3 1:18MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Scott Gomez · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 14:07TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Dominic Moore, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:08TBLSean Bergenheim: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:28MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:56MTLBenoit Pouliot: Elbowing2 min
- P2 5:20TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:26TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:45MTLLars Eller: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:13MTLMichael Cammalleri: Interference2 min
- P3 3:42MTLTravis Moen: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:11MTLJeff Halpern: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:35TBLVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Moore
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Pacioretty11:07
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Halpern – Cammalleri – Plekanec12:27
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Pyatt – Desharnais5:38
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Moen – Kostitsyn – Eller9:34
xG 0.17–0.60 (22%)attempts 5–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban16:11
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 16–16goals 2–1
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski16:07
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 15–24goals 0–0
- Sopel – Weber8:14
xG 0.12–0.50 (19%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Gagne – Stamkos5:16
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos4:16
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Ritola – Stamkos3:10
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Moore – Bergenheim – Ritola2:09
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Jones8:24
xG 0.73–0.53 (58%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Clark – Hedman10:14
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Kubina – Bergeron2:22
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).