Sat, Mar 5, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 5, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 214 | 28 | 19 | 531 |
| COL | 06 | 120 | 08 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Linus Omark · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:17EDMRyan JonesPPGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Tom Gilbert · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 0:39EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 8:36EDMAlexandre GirouxAssists: Linus Omark, Sam Gagner · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–0
- P2 15:13COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: David Jones, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
- P3 0:29EDMAndrew CoglianoSHAssists: Liam Reddox, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:59EDMAlex Plante: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:11COLRyan Wilson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:04COLPhilippe Dupuis: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:55EDMAlex Plante: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:55COLBrandon Yip: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:23COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:23EDMSteve MacIntyre: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:26EDMJim Vandermeer: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:30EDMKurtis Foster: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:34EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:34COLAdam Foote: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:34EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:24EDMAlex Plante: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:24COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:49EDMSteve MacIntyre: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:49COLDavid Koci: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fraser won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Eberle – Paajarvi14:14
xG 0.96–0.66 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Jacques – Fraser – Jones2:55
xG 0.02–0.05 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Gagner – Omark9:14
xG 0.15–0.36 (30%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Giroux – Reddox – Cogliano7:04
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Smid12:44
xG 0.94–0.54 (63%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Vandermeer – Plante14:03
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Strudwick – Vandermeer2:03
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Stastny – Duchene7:22
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Koci – Dupuis – Yip3:33
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jones – Porter – O'Reilly6:06
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- McClement – Winnik – McLeod8:56
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFoote – Liles4:07
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Johnson2:22
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Foote – Wilson9:36
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).