Sun, Mar 6, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Buffalo Sabres 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 111 | 015 | 11 | 333 |
| MIN | 06 | 214 | 06 | 00 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Steve Montador, Thomas Vanek · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 2:04BUFRob NiedermayerAssists: Andrej Sekera, Cody McCormick · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–0
- P2 14:13MINWarren PetersAssists: Brad Staubitz, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 17:33MINMarek ZidlickyPPAssists: Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Martin Havlat · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 0:46BUFDrew StaffordGWGAssists: Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:50MINMarek Zidlicky: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:17MINChuck Kobasew: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:05BUFJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:01BUFTyler Myers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:00BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:00MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Cullen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestNiedermayer – McCormick – Mancari8:27
xG 0.72–0.20 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Boyes – Pominville – Vanek12:58
xG 0.55–0.39 (59%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Connolly – Stafford – Ennis12:23
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Mancari – Gerbe3:08
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontador – Sekera15:37
xG 1.11–0.35 (76%)attempts 17–15goals 2–0
- Leopold – Butler2:46
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Butler – Myers13:44
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPeters – Nystrom – Staubitz2:37
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Madden – Kobasew – Nystrom3:51
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Wellman4:48
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Peters5:01
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Spurgeon11:41
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky15:54
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Zanon – Spurgeon2:16
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).