Mon, Mar 7, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Washington Capitals 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 010 | 13 | 010 | 1 | 230 |
| TBL | 17 | 014 | 04 | 03 | 0 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:30TBLSean BergenheimPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 14:28WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Dennis Wideman, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TBL Dominic Moore stopped
- 2. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 3. TBL Adam Hall stopped
- 4. WSH Alexander Semin stopped
- 5. TBL Vincent Lecavalier stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:56WSHJohn Carlson: Holding2 min
- P1 12:26WSHMatt Hendricks: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:21TBLMattias Ohlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:55WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:37WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:31TBLVictor Hedman: Elbowing2 min
- P3 16:39TBLVincent Lecavalier: Interference2 min
- P3 16:39WSHScott Hannan: High sticking2 min
- OT 3:44TBLPavel Kubina: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Lecavalier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Hendricks – Gordon5:51
xG 0.07–0.02 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sturm – Chimera – Johansson5:14
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Arnott – Semin – Ovechkin8:09
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Sturm – Chimera – Gordon2:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson15:16
xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Hannan – Erskine3:02
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hannan – Wideman7:04
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Thompson – Tyrell11:32
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Gagne – Moore – Purcell7:01
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos9:40
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Moore – Stamkos3:29
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Brewer14:41
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Kubina – Hedman2:26
xG 0.16–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Clark – Hedman12:17
xG 0.14–0.11 (58%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).