Mon, Mar 7, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, St. Louis Blues 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 38 | 113 | 04 | 03 | 2 | 428 |
| STL | 316 | 19 | 07 | 04 | 3 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:24STLPatrik BerglundUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:46CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 7:32CBJMatt CalvertAssists: R.J. Umberger, Kris Russell · Slap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P1 10:10CBJFedor TyutinPPAssists: Grant Clitsome, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P1 12:42STLAndy McDonaldPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P1 13:57STLT.J. OshiePPAssists: Matt D'Agostini, David Backes · Tip-in, 0.37 xG3–3
- P2 6:53STLAndy McDonaldAssists: David Backes, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrap-around, 0.14 xG3–4
- P2 10:28CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: Rick Nash, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 2. CBJ Rick Nash scored
- 3. STL Andy McDonald scored
- 4. CBJ Kyle Wilson stopped
- 5. STL Chris Stewart stopped
- 6. CBJ Fedor Tyutin scored
- 7. STL Alexander Steen scored
- 8. CBJ Antoine Vermette stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:43STLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:43CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:48STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:48CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:40STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:40CBJCraig Rivet: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:05STLIan Cole: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:48CBJKris Russell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:52CBJRick Nash: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:07STLRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:43STLT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:49STLIan Cole: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Oshie won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Umberger – Calvert11:10
xG 1.09–0.32 (78%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Nash – Voracek10:43
xG 0.74–0.28 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Pahlsson – Upshall – Dorsett9:18
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Moreau – Pahlsson – Upshall2:28
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRivet – Tyutin8:35
xG 0.71–0.15 (83%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Clitsome – Russell9:14
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Rivet – Russell6:48
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Backes – Cracknell2:47
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – Oshie3:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Porter – Stewart – Berglund10:48
xG 0.45–0.52 (46%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- McDonald – Backes – D'Agostini5:29
xG 0.07–0.32 (19%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Shattenkirk17:02
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 19–7goals 1–1
- Jackman – Pietrangelo16:19
xG 0.28–0.79 (26%)attempts 10–16goals 1–2
- Colaiacovo – Nikitin14:16
xG 0.43–1.10 (28%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).