Tue, Mar 8, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 29 | 18 | 01 | 327 |
| NYI | 011 | 214 | 112 | 13 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:15NYIZenon KonopkaAssists: Milan Jurcina, Justin DiBenedetto · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 2:49TORKeith AulieAssists: Jay Rosehill, Tim Brent · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 11:17NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Kyle Okposo, Andrew MacDonald · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:44TORTim BrentAssists: Colby Armstrong · Snap, 0.32 xG2–2
- P3 8:40NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Blake Comeau, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 9:48TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 4:02NYIBlake ComeauGWGAssists: Radek Martinek, Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:54TORMike Brown: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:54NYIMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:35TORMikhail Grabovski: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:38NYIMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:37NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:00NYIMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyce won the faceoff against Bailey
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Kessel – Bozak5:50
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Crabb – Boyce8:04
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – MacArthur – Bozak7:22
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Kessel – Kulemin6:49
xG 0.38–0.46 (45%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Schenn16:02
xG 1.03–0.54 (66%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Aulie – Schenn2:41
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson2:44
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:07
xG 0.78–0.38 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner10:36
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Comeau – Bailey – Martin15:18
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Konopka – Haley – DiBenedetto5:42
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic18:27
xG 1.48–0.48 (75%)attempts 26–9goals 2–0
- Martinek – Hillen16:30
xG 0.94–0.63 (60%)attempts 19–16goals 0–1
- Jurcina – Gervais12:39
xG 0.37–1.02 (27%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).