Sat, Mar 12, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 220 | 010 | 342 |
| TOR | 17 | 112 | 210 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:55BUFMike WeberAssists: Tim Connolly, Rob Niedermayer · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 11:23TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 10:10TORTyler BozakAssists: Phil Kessel, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 11:04BUFJochen HechtAssists: Andrej Sekera, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 15:31BUFJordan LeopoldPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Cody McCormick · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 4:03TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 6:36TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Luke Schenn, James Reimer · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:29BUFAndrej Sekera: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:13TORMikhail Grabovski: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:34BUFTyler Myers: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyes won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Pominville – Vanek14:06
xG 1.14–0.25 (82%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Connolly – Boyes – Ennis6:55
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–2
- Connolly – Mancari – Gerbe3:29
xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick2:57
xG 0.02–0.00 (81%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Myers20:10
xG 1.35–0.45 (75%)attempts 24–18goals 1–2
- Morrisonn – Weber11:25
xG 0.51–0.41 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Sekera – Weber2:12
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestArmstrong – Boyce – Brown3:10
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brent – Rosehill – Brown3:39
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Crabb – Boyce5:33
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak15:28
xG 0.50–0.81 (38%)attempts 20–23goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Lebda6:49
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson2:36
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Phaneuf – Aulie19:59
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).