Sat, Mar 12, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 110 | 219 | 01 | 338 |
| FLA | 05 | 18 | 29 | 15 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:33FLADavid BoothAssists: Mike Weaver, Keaton Ellerby · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 14:10TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Simon Gagne · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 2:22FLARyan CarterAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Mike Santorelli · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 5:18FLANiclas BergforsAssists: Jason Garrison, Stephen Weiss · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 12:35TBLVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Simon Gagne · Tip-in, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 17:55TBLSimon GagnePPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Steven Stamkos · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 4:44FLAJason GarrisonGWGAssists: Mike Santorelli, Marty Reasoner · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:38TBLNate Thompson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:50TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:08FLAMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:50FLAMichal Repik: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:02FLADavid Booth: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:29FLAJason Garrison: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:34TBLDana Tyrell: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:04TBLBrett Clark: Interference2 min
- P3 9:27FLAJason Garrison: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 12:27FLABill Thomas: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:36FLANiclas Bergfors: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Thompson – Purcell4:57
xG 0.22–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Moore – Bergenheim – Ritola6:17
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos7:13
xG 0.30–0.34 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Lecavalier – Hall – Thompson2:25
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bergeron – Hedman9:49
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Brewer – Hedman3:32
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Clark9:11
xG 0.12–0.15 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Booth – Repik12:34
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Weiss – Bergfors11:06
xG 0.50–0.22 (70%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Bernier – Santorelli – Carter2:07
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Hordichuk – Thomas – Carter4:07
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllerby – Kulikov12:06
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Weaver – Garrison14:18
xG 0.40–0.34 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Callahan – Wilson7:39
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).